Able Global Berhad (KLSE:ABLEGLOB) shareholders have endured a 20% loss from investing in the stock a year ago

Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market – but in the process, they risk under-performance. Unfortunately the Able Global Berhad (KLSE:ABLEGLOB) share price slid 24% over twelve months. That contrasts poorly with the market decline of 0.9%. Longer term investors have fared much better, since the share price is up 13% in three years.

With that in mind, it’s worth seeing if the company’s underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

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While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the unfortunate twelve months during which the Able Global Berhad share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 0.8%. It could be that the share price was previously over-hyped.

By glancing at these numbers, we’d posit that the the market had expectations of much higher growth, last year. But other metrics might shed some light on why the share price is down.

We don’t see any weakness in the Able Global Berhad’s dividend so the steady payout can’t really explain the share price drop. The revenue trend doesn’t seem to explain why the share price is down. Of course, it could simply be that it simply fell short of the market consensus expectations.

The company’s revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

We’re pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Able Global Berhad will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Able Global Berhad’s TSR for the last 1 year was -20%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

While the broader market lost about 0.9% in the twelve months, Able Global Berhad shareholders did even worse, losing 20% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there’s a good opportunity. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 4% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we’ve discovered 1 warning sign for Able Global Berhad that you should be aware of before investing here.

We will like Able Global Berhad better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Malaysian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.