European stocks rise as Trump takes sting out of fresh US-China trade spat

Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt have been awarded the 2025 Nobel economics prize for “having explained innovation-driven economic growth,” the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said on Monday.

Mokyr used historical sources as a means to uncover the causes of sustained growth becoming the new normal. Aghion and Howitt studied the mechanisms behind sustained growth. In an article from 1992, they constructed a mathematical model for what is called creative destruction: when a new and better product enters the market, the companies selling the older products lose out.

The award is formally known as the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. Instituted by the Swedish central bank in 1968, the award was created to honour Alfred Nobel, best known for his invention of dynamite and establishment of the five Nobel Prizes.

The inaugural laureates of this award were Ragnar Frisch and Jan Tinbergen, who received the prize in 1969 for their pioneering contributions to the development of econometric models. Over the years, the prize has evolved into a cornerstone of economic scholarship, honouring key advancements in the field of economics.

Last year, Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson were awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics “for studies of how institutions are formed and affect prosperity,” the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has announced.

The Nobel Committee praised the trio for explaining why “societies with a poor rule of law and institutions that exploit the population do not generate growth or change for the better.”

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Almost 7.4 million passengers travelled through Heathrow last month, the busiest ever September after a record-breaking summer.

However, passenger numbers grew just 0.3% so far this year, with a 2.2% and 2.7% drop in UK and non-EU Europe passengers respectively. This was offset by a 2.3% increase in passengers from Asia.

The sluggish growth is down to capacity constraints which will ease once Heathrow’s third runway is completed, although that is likely to take around a decade.

The expansion plans are expected to add 276,000 flights a year, equating to around a 57% increase from today’s capacity.

Heathrow also faced headwinds in September from a cyberattack on Collins Aerospace’s Muse software that impacted airlines’ check in and boarding systems across Europe.

Oil prices rose following comments from Trump that allowed investors to lower their hackles, following fears of an inflammatory tit-for-tat tariff exchange between the US and China.

Bloomberg reports:

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Shawbrook Group has confirmed plans to list in London early next month in a move that could reportedly value the firm at £2bn.

It would be the biggest London initial public offering (IPO) so far this year after a welcome bounce-back in flotations in recent weeks.

The Beauty Tech Group, which makes gadgets including LED face masks, made its debut earlier this month with a £320m valuation.

Meanwhile, Liverpool-based tinned tuna and Napolina maker Princes Group recently confirmed plans to list later in October, with a £1.5bn valuation.

Shawbrook aims to raise £50m through the sale of new shares, while it will also sell shares held by its existing private equity backers BC Partners and Pollen Street Capital.

The lender, which lends to small and medium-sized businesses, has been owned by BC Partners and Pollen Street Capital since 2017, when they took the then London-listed group private.

Gold and silver prices are climbing again today with spot gold rising more than 2.2% at the time of writing, at $4,088.90 an ounce, after logging its eighth week of gains last week.

Meanwhile, silver is up nearly 5% today, and platinum has risen by 2.7% amid a rally in precious metals.

Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, said:

Here are the FTSE risers and fallers this morning:

Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L) has put an extra £800m aside to deal with potential compensation claims over the motor finance scandal. This now takes its total provision to almost £2bn after previously setting aside £1.15bn.

The bank said the move comes amid increased likelihood of more historical cases, particularly those affected by “discretionary commission arrangements”, being eligible for compensation.

Lloyds remains one of the most exposed to an ongoing scandal in which drivers were overcharged for loans as a result of commission paid to car dealers.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) published a 360-page consultation paper for its redress scheme and said last week that the mis-selling scandal would cost banks £11bn overall. But this could rise to £12.4bn if all victims apply and secure payouts as part of the scheme.

Lloyds added the final outcome may “evolve in response to representations made by various parties as well as further legal proceedings and complaints or any other broader implications for the Supreme Court judgement”.

Chinese exports bounced back in September, beating forecasts after the world’s second-largest economy diversified its markets.

Exports in the country rose 8.3% (to $328.5bn) year-on-year last month — fastest growth since March, and beating a 6% increase forecast by economists polled by Reuters. It follows a 4.4% increase in August.

However, exports to the United States fell 27% during the month from the year before, having fallen for six straight months. In August they dropped 33%.

Shipments to Southeast Asia grew 15.6% year-on-year in September and exports to Latin America and Africa were up 15% and 56%, respectively.

Lynn Song, chief economist Greater China at ING, said:

Meanwhile, Chinese imports growth jumped to 7.4%, from 1.3% in August. This came as a surprise given the recent signs of weaker domestic demand and a real estate sector downturn which is weighing on demand and consumption.

Stocks in Asia were lower overnight after Donald Trump reignited his trade war with China on Friday with the Hang Seng (^HSI) falling 1.7% in Hong Kong.

The Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was 0.2% down by the end of the session and in South Korea, the Kospi (^KS11) lost 0.7% on the day after the US president threatened new 100% tariffs against Beijing. The Nikkei (^N225) was closed for a holiday in Japan.

Stocks were hit even after Trump signalled on Sunday that he would be open to talks with his counterpart Xi Jinping.

He wrote on Truth Social: “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”

Trump made his tariff threat in response to China enforcing tighter export controls on rare earth materials, which are vital in the production of everything from cars to solar panels.

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said he expects that both sides will eventually agree to extend their current tariff pause beyond the upcoming 10 November deadline “but limited concessions from both sides”.

He added:

On Friday the S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped 2.7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) was 3.6% down. The Dow Jones (^DJI) lost 1.9%.

Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what’s moving markets and happening across the global economy.

To the day ahead we have China’s September trade balance, Germany August current account balance, wholesale price index. From central banks: Fed’s Paulson speaks, and the BoE’s Greene and Mann speak. Elsewhere, 2025 Annual Meetings of the World Bank and the IMF (through October 18), Columbus Day in the US

Here’s a snapshot of what’s on the agenda:

7am: Trading updates: Tristel

11am: Nobel prize for economics

Columbus Day in the US: stock markets open, bond markets shut